MMA betting analyst Liam Heslin previews Darren Till vs. Derek Brunson Odds ahead of UFC Vegas 36. Dive in deep with Liam as he gives you his predictions & betting picks for Saturday, September 3, 2021.

Darren Till vs. Derek Brunson Odds

UFC Vegas 36 will feature a middleweight main event pitting the number five ranked Derek Brunson, a surging veteran contender, against Darren Till, a mouthy former title challenger from the weight class below. UFC matchmaking for contenders is often driven by pitting proven divisional mainstays with limited promotional upside (Derek Brunson) against younger contenders with commercial upside and marketability that need to prove they are worthy of main events and title opportunities. In this matchup, they have also set up a stylistic dichotomy. Derek Brunson is a gritty, hard-nosed, veteran middleweight contender riding a three-fight win streak into this contest. He is also a classically trained American wrestler who achieved All-American honors at Division II UNC Pembroke. Darren Till on the other hand is a promotional darling, a former welterweight title challenger who asserted himself as a legitimate middleweight by losing a razor-close decision to former champion Robert Whittaker in which he defended a bevy of takedown attempts and scored impressive counter elbows and left hands. Till (6-3-1 UFC) is a British Muay Thai striker with serious power, (2.4% KD rate vs. 1.6% KD rate for Brunson) accuracy, and efficiency as a striker. Strike versus grappler is a classic mold of a UFC matchup, in this case made all the more interesting by the fact that Derek Brunson is tied for fourth all-time on the organization’s middleweight KO list with eight knockouts (12 career KOs) in 17 UFC fights (12-5 UFC). Let’s take a look at the odds and see what this card has on offer!

Best Available Odds

  • Darren Till: -175 via William Hill and BetMGM
  • Derek Brunson: +155 via DraftKings Sportsbook

This is a matchup which I have a difficult time reading from a money line perspective because Darren Till has had very few opportunities to prove himself against talented wrestlers. That being said, outside of the Shahbazyan (cardio issues) and Holland (poor defensive wrestling/grappling instincts) matchups, Derek Brunson has rarely shown an ability to take someone down and hold them down with consistency. Often times Derek will achieve his best wrestling success as a pattern interrupter in striking, when he will force someone to defend his entry with underhooks and then exit with overhand punches and hooks as he bails on the takedown attempt, only to reenter a moment later and complete the shot, having muddled your ability to react. Essentially, Derek is at his best when he is dulling his opponents’ sensibilities to the difference between his striking and his wrestling attacks. Against powerful range strikers, we often see Derek revert to some bad habits, including wrestling entries across too much open space, an inability to find balanced feet when pressuring on the front foot, and a difficulty avoiding staggering blows from fast opponents. Holland spent almost 17 minutes being controlled on the ground and against the fence by Derek, and yet he almost found a KO punch in the brief moments spent on the feet. Brunson is also significantly older in this matchup, so I fear for his recoverability should he get stung in this contest.

The Pick: Darren Till defeats Derek Brunson by Rd. 2KO (Punches)

Rationale: While I would love to side with my guy Derek Brunson who cashed me some nice plus money plays against Kevin Holland, I am ultimately going to favor Darren Till to stuff some takedown attempts, force Brunson to work, and snipe him with a left hand straight, uppercut, or elbow intercepting his forward pressure.

The Bet(s):
.25U Brunson Via SUB +2900 via FanDuel
.65U Under 3.5 Rds. -112 via FanDuel

Rationale: I will be sprinkling on Brunson by SUB in this spot as I did in his last fight. Last time out, he locked up a head and arm choke for significant control time over BJJ black belt Kevin Holland and I was freaking out holding Brunson via SUB @ +1450. This time, Brunson is a baffling +2900 to win via SUB on FanDuel (+2200 or below on every other book) compared to +2300 for Till, which makes no sense. Brunson has 3 career subs compared to 2 for Till, and one of Till’s 3 losses is by SUB; Brunson has never been submitted as a professional. Till turns his back to turtle and stand up, and Brunson has shown an ability to hop on the back and finish a rear-naked choke. 3.3% indication at +2900 is absurd and worth a poke even if you back Till in this spot. I don’t have a very strong read from a money line perspective and I don’t expect to end up on either side. I favor Till to win this fight anywhere between 61-65% (-156 to -185), so I think the market has priced this appropriately. I do like the Under 3.5 in the spot from a totals perspective, not tremendously, but because both guys are coming off of fights that went to DEC (cause for market hesitancy). In addition, they both possess power (KD rates over 1.5%), they both have somewhat suspect chins (both opponent KD rates 1.4% or greater), and they have both been finished in the majority of their losses (5 KO losses for Brunson of 7 total and 2 losses ITD for Till in 3 losses). On the sharpest books, Brunson by SUB is +1500 and the Under 3.5 is -140.

Image Credit: Imagn

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